RRD Engr & Constr
BCA General Builder GB2 +65 9348 0216

Cheap quote vs delay simulator

Run 10,000 simulated projects to compare a cheaper quote with a higher one, once the risk and cost of delay are priced in.

Two quotations

Rent, holding over, lost revenue, double occupancy. The late handback calculator can help.

Quote A: delay risk

Higher means a longer tail of very late outcomes.

Quote B: delay risk

Chance the cheaper quote ends up costing more

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-Quote A, expected total cost
-Quote B, expected total cost
-Quote A, 1-in-10 bad outcome
-Quote B, 1-in-10 bad outcome

Share of simulated projects finished within each total cost

Quote AQuote BA curve further right means more expensive outcomes. Where the lines cross, the cheaper quote stops being cheaper.

How this works. Each simulated project is either on time or late, with the chance you set. When it is late, the delay is drawn from a lognormal distribution, a right-skewed shape that matches how construction overruns behave: most delays are modest, a few are very long. Total cost = quote + weeks late x weekly cost of delay. The default numbers are illustrative; replace them with your own.

Read more: Cheapest Quote vs Delay Risk: The Economics of Choosing a Contractor in Singapore. Liquidated Damages and Extension of Time in Singapore: An Owner's and Contractor's Guide. Variation Orders and Provisional Sums: How to Stop Surprise VOs on Singapore Building Works.